Sep 04

59 Days to Election Day: An Electoral Katrina Coming?

I admit, I’ve not been a big follower of politics until recently.  Since the 2008 election, my interests in what has been guiding our country the wrong way has only intensified.

Admittedly, a employer mandated 5% pay cut in the spring of 2009 didn’t help my spirits any, nor watching close co-workers get sidelined to meet some personnel reduction quota (despite doing so put us in violation of contractual agreements).

But now the sea of tide seems to be changing, and more people are thinking the way I’ve been thinking for the last 18 months.  Friday, Election Projection released a updated projecting showing the Republicans gaining 41 seats in the House, and 9 in the Senate.  Larry Sabato gazed into his Crystal Ball and puts the gain in the house at 47 seats. (Editor’s note: Between beginning to write this story and posting, Election Projection has backed their house numbers down to 39 seats gained by Republicans – still a majority, but by a single member)

This is the first time this election cycle polling of individual races has indicated the Republicans should be able to send Nancy Pelosi back to the floor from her seat atop the Dias.  Likewise, if the two independents continue to caucus with the Democrats, the Senate could be deadlocked with 48 Democrats and 50 Republicans.

Likewise, this is the first time in the history of the Gallup poll that the Republicans have led the Generic Ballot by double digits.

What’s going to the Republicans favor?  Plenty.  Between the increasing economic turmoil, the Health Care bill, Cap and Trade, Card Check and other anti-consumer/business legislation.

This opens the door for many incumbents to be sent packing.  The Tea Party movement has helped in clearly identifying Democrats (and Republicans as well) that are not serving the interests of the people they represent.  This has led to three incumbents in the Senate alone being taken out of the running in the primaries.

But, there’s still a lot of room for Democrats to fire off an October surprise that might rapidly swing the balance of power back in their favor. 

The best thing that the Republicans could do now, is to execute a preemptive strike with a “Contract with America“-esque proposal for the voters, making promises to the people that should be obtainable, even with the other party in the White House.  It worked in 1994 (Contract with America was released mid-September, leading up to the electoral win in November), and given the right timing, could work again.

Likewise, the Conservative Blogosphere and online News Media could fire back with any number of projects quietly being worked on over the last 18 months.  That could serve as the genesis of a Republican version of the October surprise, also negating the Democrats final push.

Ultimately, there’s a storm brewing, and the whole country’s in the bulls-eye.  And this is one storm that Obama, Reid and Pelosi can no longer blame the previous administration on.  The only people they can blame are the ones who stare back at them when they look in the mirror.

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